Since Barack Obama’s big win in Iowa, a couple of the people on staff and I have had several debates about his electability. Simply put, they think he can win. I think there is no chance in hell, and if the Democrats pick him to run it would almost assuredly be suicide.
But then again, Democrats lately have been nothing if not suicidal, so they may actually run him, ensuring eight more years of Republicans and war and economic failure.
Let me be clear — I am not being racist. I just don’t think a guy named Barack Obama will light the same fire in undecided voters in Ohio and Florida, which, let’s face it, is really all that matters in the age of red states and blue states, the way he can with party faithful in Iowa or the 50% black electorate in South Carolina.
Look, Hillary may be divisive. In fact, she may be too divisive to win also. But it is time that Democrats quit flirting with death and realize that she is their best chance. Edwards’ message is getting old. In two attempts at the nomination he has failed to win a single primary. And as inspirational as his speeches may be, Obama can’t win in November.
I tend to take a realist’s perspective on politics — one that some of my more liberal colleagues may deem almost conservative — though on most issues I find myself agreeing with the left more than the right. And at some point as a party, you have to be realistic. You have to say to yourself, “Who can win?”
The Republican hate machine has already started calling him “Black Osama.” His admitted past drug use (he admitted to “scoring some blow” in his 1995 book) will just be the tip of the iceberg when the chips are down and Limbaugh and his ilk are on the attack. Yes, they hate Hilary. But they have little to say about her other than she is liberal and a — well, something that rhymes with witch. Plus, 51 percent of this country is female, giving her a far greater built-in cheering section than the Kenyan descent voter base.
Not to mention the fact that black voters repeatedly have shown they liked Bill Clinton, often calling him the first black president. And Obama’s middle name is Hussein, for God’s sake. Six years ago, just after 9/11, a man named Barack Obama would have had a hard time getting on a plane. Now you think he is going to be president?
Just think about it. Yes, the issues are important. But in the end, like it or not, our presidential races often denegrate into a popularity contest where people vote for candidates who “are just like them.”
How else can you explain Bush winning two elections despite having no idea what he was doing? People picked Bush because John Kerry was an elitist Massachusetts liberal and Al Gore said he invented the Internet and rolled his eyes in debates. When given a choice between a war hero like John McCain, with years of experience in foreign affairs and in the Senate, and Obama, a man with a message but little experience who looks and talks nothing like them, they are going to choose McCain.
Everyone says that the Republicans are pulling for Clinton, because they think she will be easy to beat. But I would venture to estimate that they are actually pulling for Obama harder, because it would likely be a cakewalk for them.
I have been bandying about a somewhat obtuse theory recently. I call it the collectible plate theory — people are not going to buy a collectible plate with “Barack Obama” on it. Ok, so it is a stretch, but it underscores my point. People elect candidates who they identify with, and I can’t see much of the nation identifying with Obama.
