NCAA Tournament: First and second round predictions

For a printable 2008 NCAA bracket to follow along with, click here

Sunday was one of the best days I have had in a while. Not only was it my birthday, where I got a very generous gift from my mom that will hopefully keep me afloat for a few weeks (thanks, mama), but Carolina also won the ACC tournament and was named the top seed in the NCAA tournament.

March Madness is my favorite time of the year, especially that first weekend. It’s so exciting. I figure I’ll get in at least a couple of pools this year, as will most of you. Here are my thoughts on the first two rounds, which can and will almost certainly separate good brackets from the bad.

Charlotte Bracket

Let’s start with the Heels. Though they are the top seed in the tournament, the selection committee didn’t do them any favors. I would expect them to get out of the first game, but by the second round the trouble could start. Indiana is a team with a whole lot to prove. Yes they lost their coach and have all but fell apart, but this is a talented squad nonetheless that was ranked as high as 12th in the regular season. And Arkansas was in the SEC tourney’s final game and could make some noise as well.

I expect Notre Dame and Winthrop to win, setting up a good second round game. And Louisville will meet Oklahoma in the second round, though neither of those teams excite me. Butler will win the 7-10 wash, and Tennessee will breeze through as well

As for the teams making it to Charlotte, I think the Heels will face Notre Dame and Oklahoma will play Tennessee.

Detroit Bracket

Kansas will have little trouble making it to Detroit, with an easy first two rounds. They’ll handle their 16, whoever Portland St. is, and UNLV.

As for who they’ll face there, though, that is a little tougher. I like the way Clemson is playing, but Villanova is also a dangerous team, as all Big East teams are. I think the Tigers will win, though, and face Vandy in the second round. And I am going to go out on a limb and say Clemson makes it to Detroit, too, and could test Kansas (more on that next week. Maybe.)

USC-Kansas St. may be the best first round game of the tourney, with two of the biggest stars in the country going head to head. I’m going to go out on a limb and say Michael Beasley, err, KSU, wins. Any star, if he is the true player of the year, can carry his team through one game against anyone. I’m betting that Beasley is a little better than O.J. Mayo.

They’ll face Wisconsin in the second round. The Badgers will stop Beasley and go to Detroit.

As for the bottom of the bracket, let me preface this by saying that every tournament has some major upsets. And the Davidson Wildcats took the Heels to the wire earlier this year. I think Davidson will beat Gonzaga, which I don’t see as much of an upset, and then beat Georgetown and go to Detroit. There, I said it. They are a very good team and Stephen Curry is as good a player as there is in the country.

Houston Bracket

Memphis has a cakewalk in the first two rounds as well and should have no trouble with their 16 or Mississippi St.

Wow, Temple made the tournament? Good for them. Too bad it will likely be a short trip. Mich. St. will win, but lose to Pitt in the second round.

Kentucky made it too? And Va. Tech is at home? Travesty. But I think maybe the Wildcats will win a couple of games in this thing, against Marquette and Stanford, and Billy Gillespie’s new job will be safe for a year.

Try as I might, I just can’t make myself think Miami wins a game. The committee didn’t do them any favors with St. Mary’s a good basketball team from a good mid-major conference. I think St. Mary’s will win, but it doesn’t matter because Texas is the best team in this region and will coast to Houston.

Phoenix Bracket

This may be the only region harder than the Charlotte one. And thank God Duke is in it. UCLA will beat their 16, but may have some trouble against Texas A&M, though I think they’ll win.

And I think Drake will win, too, making it the first year in a long time that a 12 has not beaten a 5. (I think Villanova might have the best chance to prove me wrong on that one.) Drake will beat Connecticut as well in the second round.

Baylor will pull of the upset of this region, beating Purdue. They’ll also likely play Xavier well, but lose a hard-fought game. There’s just something about the Drew family and tourney time. I can’t explain it.

West Virginia will havev no problem against an Arizona team that got in solely on name recognition, but (and this hurts to say,) Duke will coast to Phoenix.

On Thursday, after the pools have been set, I will post my entire bracket. See you then.