OK, so all my first and second round predictions were not correct. But really, who would have predicted that Siena and Western Kentucky would become juggernauts? Or that we would have two 12-13 match-ups in the second round? Therein lies the beauty of the first weekend of the tournament.
Keep in mind, though, that I did call the Davidson run correctly. So I at least know a little something about what I am doing here. And how ’bout them Blue Devils?! I knew they were vastly overrated this year, but I figured they would make it past the first weekend. I’m glad I was wrong.
The second weekend is usually the one that separates the men from the boys. It is almost impossible to pull off a major upset in the Sweet 16 or Final 8, because the great teams have already shaken the nerves of the tournament and are firing on all cylinders. Here is how I see the weekend playing out and the four teams that will head to San Antonio:
East Region
Nobody ever promised the Tar Heels it would be easy. But as Kansas and UCLA enjoy a Sweet 16 match-up with 12 seeds, UNC may have the toughest game they’ll face in the tournament so far. Which is probably good news, since the Heels breezed through the first two rounds. We need a test.I feel like Washington St.’s slowdown style and strong big men may give us trouble, at least for 30 minutes. The key will be staying out of foul trouble and not allowing a big lead early, so when they finally do wear down we can take over. I’ll say that happens, and the Heels survive a scare to move on.
Louisville is playing inspired basketball right now, and I see them having little trouble with Tennessee in the second match-up in Charlotte, setting up a Roy Williams-Rick Pitino showdown in the Elite 8.
In that game, as with most Elite 8 games, all bets are off, though I think the Heels are just playing far too well right now not to make it to San Antonio. To be honest, there were times during the season when I thought we wouldn’t lose a game, but right now, with Lawson back at full speed, we are playing our best ball yet. Guard play wins tourney games. Just ask Davidson. And I think the Heels have three of the best guards in the country right now and will head to the Final Four with them.
Midwest Region
Like the Midwest itself, this region will likely be pretty boring. Though Davidson could make a bid to keep their magic going, I think they are going to run into something in Wisconsin that they have not seen yet — a well-coached team that knows how to defend. The magic ends for Stephen Curry in the Sweet 16, and Kansas will have little trouble with Villanova, setting up Kansas vs. Wisconsin in the Elite 8.
I am hoping that Wisconsin wins, just so Roy doesn’t have to put up with a week’s worth of Kansas questions before the Final Four. But I doubt it will happen. I think Kansas is a great defensive team that is just as potent on offense, and will coast to San Antonio.
South Region
And just like the South itself, this region is pretty backward. No one in the country is picking Memphis to hold on to its top seed and win out. I actually think Michigan State will knock off the Tigers, and the best team in this region is the two-seed, Texas, and will head home to San Antonio after getting tested by Stanford.
West Region
I think UCLA may be the second-weakest 1 seed right now, but I don’t see anyone in their bracket to knock them off. The Bruins will end the Hilltoppers’ (Western Kentucky) Cinderella run in the Sweet 16 to face Xavier in the Elite 8.
The Bruins may face trouble in the game, but I can’t see Xavier in the final four. But then again, I never predicted Geo. Mason in the Final Four either…
Anything can happen this weekend, but usually the best teams win. That’s why I see UNC, Kansas, Texas and UCLA in the Final Four. More predictions to follow…
